A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
